#168 Groundbreaking EUV Lithography Tech From Japan Set to Challenge ASML
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Groundbreaking EUV Lithography Tech From Japan Set to Challenge ASML
In the world of semiconductors, things move at a very slow pace, especially when it comes to the equipment that is required to manufacture the chips.
ASML, a Dutch company is the dominant player in the EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography market and has been at the forefront of semiconductor manufacturing technology for years.
Its machines are critical for producing advanced semiconductors at 7nm and below, and the company has invested heavily in perfecting this technology.
But things seem to be changing.
Professor Tsumoru Shintake from the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology (OIST) has introduced a groundbreaking EUV lithography technology that is set to revolutionize semiconductor manufacturing, especially for chips at 7nm and below.
This innovative approach dramatically reduces energy consumption and capital costs, addressing some of the industry's most pressing challenges.
The key to this advancement lies in a new optical projection system that utilizes only four reflective mirrors, a significant departure from conventional systems that require up to ten. This reduction allows for smaller EUV light sources, cutting costs and improving machine reliability and lifespan.
Most impressively, this new technology consumes less than 1/10th of the power required by traditional EUV lithography machines, making it a much more sustainable option for the semiconductor industry.
Traditional EUV lithography faces significant challenges due to the short wavelengths of EUV light, which can't pass through transparent lenses and are highly absorbed by most materials. Conventional systems use a series of crescent-shaped mirrors to direct the light, but this results in optical performance losses.
In contrast, Professor Shintake's approach uses just two axisymmetric mirrors with tiny center-holes, aligned in a straight line, significantly enhancing optical properties.
One of the most striking benefits of this new system is its efficiency. In standard EUV systems, only about 1% of the energy from the EUV light source reaches the wafer due to the high absorbency of EUV light, necessitating powerful and energy-intensive light sources.
Shintake's design allows over 10% of the energy to reach the wafer, enabling effective use with much smaller and less power-hungry EUV sources. This can directly lead to substantial reductions in energy consumption, a critical factor as the industry looks to reduce its environmental impact.
Professor Shintake overcame two major hurdles that had long stymied advancements in EUV lithography.
The first was simplifying the projector design to use just two mirrors, a feat achieved by rethinking classical optics.
The second was developing a novel illumination technique, the ‘dual line field,’ which directs EUV light onto a photomask without obstructing the optical path. This method ensures efficient and precise illumination, critical for high-quality semiconductor production.
OIST has filed a patent for this technology, which holds significant economic potential. The global EUV lithography market is projected to grow from $8.9 billion in 2024 to $17.4 billion by 2030, with an annual growth rate of around 12%.
But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s see how this new tech stacks up against the established ASML’s EUV Lithography technology
Energy Efficiency
ASML: ASML's EUV machines are known for their high power consumption, primarily due to the need for a powerful EUV light source. The energy loss through multiple mirrors in the optical path also adds to the power requirements, necessitating large amounts of electricity and cooling.
Shintake's Technology: The new technology is significantly more energy-efficient, consuming less than 1/10th of the power required by traditional EUV lithography machines. This is achieved by using fewer mirrors and improving the light transmission efficiency, which allows the use of smaller, less energy-intensive light sources.
This system operates with an EUV light source of just 20W, leading to a total power consumption of less than 100kW. In contrast, traditional EUV lithography from ASML systems often require over 1MW of power.
Optical Design
ASML: ASML's systems use a complex arrangement of up to ten mirrors in the optical path to direct EUV light onto the wafer. This zigzag pattern, necessary to handle the short wavelengths of EUV light, results in significant energy losses and can degrade optical performance.
Shintake's Technology: Shintake's approach uses only two axisymmetric mirrors for the projection system, arranged in a straight line. This design reduces optical aberrations and significantly improves efficiency by allowing more EUV light to reach the wafer. It also simplifies the overall system, potentially reducing maintenance and operational costs.
Cost and Scalability
ASML: ASML's machines are extremely expensive, with each unit costing anywhere between $150 million to $300 million. The high cost is partly due to the complexity of the technology, including the need for powerful light sources and extensive cooling systems.
Shintake's Technology: This one is projected to be around $100 million. Importantly, it could lower the total cost of ownership of EUV lithography equipment by reducing the need for high-powered light sources and simplifying the optical system.
If commercialized, it could offer a more cost-effective alternative to ASML’s equipment, making advanced semiconductor manufacturing more accessible to newer and smaller players.
Environmental Impact
ASML: The environmental impact of ASML’s machines is significant due to their high energy consumption and the large amounts of water required for cooling.
Shintake's Technology: By consuming less power and requiring less cooling, Shintake's technology is more environmentally sustainable. This aligns with the global push toward reducing the carbon footprint of semiconductor manufacturing.
Market Position
ASML: ASML has a well-established position in the market, with a proven track record and widespread adoption of its technology by major semiconductor manufacturers. The company's equipment is currently indispensable for producing the most advanced chips.
Shintake's Technology: While promising, Shintake's technology is still in the developmental stage and has yet to be proven in commercial settings. If successfully developed and commercialized, it could challenge ASML's dominance by offering a more efficient and cost-effective alternative, but this will require extensive testing, validation, and industry adoption.
And this is where commercial deployment in the real world could pose some challenges.
Technical Validation and Reliability
ASML's equipment has undergone years of rigorous testing and refinement, proving its reliability in high-volume semiconductor manufacturing environments. In contrast, Professor Shintake's technology is still in the developmental stage and has yet to be validated in a commercial setting.
Semiconductor manufacturers demand equipment with proven reliability to avoid costly downtime. Any new technology must undergo extensive testing to demonstrate it can consistently meet the high standards of the industry.
Integration with Existing Manufacturing Processes
ASML's equipment is deeply integrated into the current semiconductor manufacturing processes, with established supply chains and support infrastructure. Adopting Professor Shintake's technology would require modifications to existing processes or even entirely new manufacturing workflows.
Transitioning to a new technology can be costly and time-consuming for manufacturers. The need to retrain personnel, modify cleanroom environments, and adjust other process parameters could slow down adoption.
Supply Chain and Ecosystem Support
ASML benefits from a robust supply chain and ecosystem, including partnerships with component suppliers, software providers, and maintenance services. Shintake's approach, being novel, lacks this established support network.
Building a reliable supply chain and ecosystem around a new technology is critical for its success. This includes securing suppliers for specialized components, developing compatible software, and establishing maintenance and support services.
Economic and Financial Considerations
While Shintake's technology promises lower operational costs, the initial R&D investment, scaling up to commercial production, and the cost of overcoming technical challenges could be substantial.
Investors and manufacturers may be hesitant to invest in unproven technology without clear evidence of its economic benefits compared to the established ASML equipment. Achieving cost parity or advantage over ASML's solutions will be essential for commercial success.
Adoption Resistance and Market Entrenchment
ASML's equipment is widely adopted by leading semiconductor manufacturers, and these companies may be resistant to switching to a new technology, especially if the perceived risks outweigh the benefits.
Convincing the industry to transition to a new lithography technology will require overcoming significant inertia, especially given the high stakes involved in semiconductor production.
Technological Compatibility and Scaling
Scaling Shintake's technology to the level required for mass production of advanced semiconductors could reveal unforeseen technical hurdles. This includes ensuring that the new optical design can handle the increasing complexity and shrinking feature sizes demanded by the industry.
Any issues related to scalability or compatibility with future semiconductor nodes (e.g., below 7nm) could limit the technology's adoption, especially if ASML continues to advance its own solutions to meet these challenges.
Standardization and Certification
ASML’s equipment has passed numerous industry certifications and adheres to established standards. Professor Shintake’s technology would need to undergo similar standardization processes, which can be lengthy and complex.
Achieving certification and standardization is crucial for gaining industry trust and ensuring compatibility with global manufacturing standards. Delays in this process could hinder the technology’s commercial deployment.
ASML's biggest customers are some of the world's leading semiconductor manufacturers, who rely on its advanced lithography equipment for producing cutting-edge chips.
TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are ASML's largest customers, and they contribute significantly to ASML's revenue.
Let’s dive in
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)
TSMC is the world's largest contract chip manufacturer and a major player in the semiconductor industry.
(read this fantastic post by
on how Taiwan became so important to semiconductors, and another one by and on how TSMC is shaping the global tech landscape)ASML’s EUV lithography machines are crucial for TSMC's production of advanced chips, particularly those at the 7nm, 5nm, and upcoming 3nm nodes.
TSMC has been a key partner for ASML, often being one of the first to adopt ASML's latest technologies. It contributes around 25-30% of ASML's annual revenue.
Samsung Electronics
Samsung is both a major producer of memory chips (DRAM, NAND) and a leader in logic chip manufacturing. Samsung uses ASML's lithography machines to produce high-performance chips used in a wide range of devices, from smartphones to data centers.
Samsung has heavily invested in ASML’s EUV technology to maintain its competitive edge in both memory and logic chip production. It contributes approx 20-25% of ASML's revenue
Intel Corporation
Intel is one of the largest semiconductor companies globally (though it has been in a little of a bother recently), primarily focused on producing processors for PCs, servers, and other computing devices. ASML’s technology is integral to Intel’s manufacturing processes as it advances its nodes to compete with TSMC and Samsung.
Intel has been an early investor in ASML and continues to be a significant customer, relying on ASML’s EUV tools for its advanced manufacturing processes.
Its contribution is estimated to be slightly lower, generally around 10-15% of ASML's revenue.
Together, these three companies are estimated to account for over 50-60% of ASML's total revenue.
Given that ASML's revenue in 2023 was around €21.2 billion, this implies that TSMC, Samsung, and Intel together contribute roughly €11-13 billion annually to ASML's revenue.
Final Thoughts
While Professor Shintake's technology offers exciting potential, the path to commercial deployment is fraught with challenges.
It will need to undergo rigorous testing and achieve industry acceptance before it can compete with ASML's well-established technology.
Overcoming these hurdles will require significant investment, collaboration with industry stakeholders, and a clear demonstration of the technology's advantages over ASML's well-entrenched solutions.
ASML could still face some headwinds, but that would be more from the regulatory side as opposed to their technology. They face new export controls from US, that could hamper their revenues in the coming years.
While ASML remains the leader in EUV lithography, Professor Shintake's proposed technology offers a novel approach that could significantly disrupt the market.
If successfully addressed, Shintake's approach could offer a transformative alternative in the semiconductor industry, but this will not be an easy or immediate process.