#169 ASML's Legacy: The Engine Driving Moore's Law Forward

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ASML's Legacy: The Engine Driving Moore's Law Forward

In the heart of the bustling San Jose Convention Center, a sea of attendees gathered on a crisp February morning to commemorate the late Gordon Moore, the visionary co-founder of Intel and the progenitor of Moore’s Law.

The event was part of the SPIE Advanced Lithography and Patterning Conference, an annual congregation of the brightest minds in the semiconductor industry.

But amidst the tributes to Moore’s genius, one presentation stood out—a reflection not just on the past but on the future of the entire chip-making industry.

Martin van den Brink, the outgoing Co-President and CTO of ASML, took the stage with a tone that was more a celebration than a eulogy.

While many had come to honor Moore’s legacy, van den Brink was there to assure the world that ASML was poised to carry that legacy into the future, continuing to push the boundaries of what’s possible in semiconductor technology.

The Unyielding Drive of Moore's Law

Moore’s Law, the principle that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years, has been the heartbeat of the semiconductor industry for decades.

This relentless drive for miniaturization has fueled the advancement of technology, from the first computers to the smartphones and AI systems we rely on today. However, as transistors shrink to mere nanometers, maintaining this pace has become increasingly challenging.

ASML, the Dutch company at the forefront of lithography technology, has played a pivotal role in ensuring Moore’s Law remains relevant.

Since 1984, when van den Brink first joined ASML, the company has transformed from a small player in the industry into the undisputed leader in photolithography—the process used to etch intricate circuits onto silicon wafers.

This transformation has been largely thanks to ASML’s cutting-edge extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are now essential tools for producing the world’s most advanced computer chips.

A Rice Analogy and the Exponential Growth

To illustrate the staggering progress of the semiconductor industry, van den Brink invoked the rice and chessboard problem, a mathematical parable where the number of grains of rice doubles on each successive square of a chessboard.

Just as a single grain of rice can multiply into trillions, the number of transistors on a chip has grown exponentially since 1959. Today, the equivalent of those trillions of grains of rice is packed into microchips no larger than a fingernail.

This exponential growth has not come easy. Each new generation of technology demands more from chipmakers, who are constantly pushing the limits of physics, engineering, and materials science.

Yet, ASML has consistently risen to the challenge, providing the tools necessary to keep Moore’s Law on track. The company’s EUV machines, first widely deployed in 2017, represent the culmination of over 17 years and $6.5 billion in R&D investment.

These machines are now the linchpins of semiconductor manufacturing, enabling companies like Intel, Samsung, and TSMC to produce chips with unprecedented density and performance.

ASML's Path to Dominance

ASML’s journey to market dominance was far from guaranteed. When van den Brink joined the company in the 1980s, it was a small subsidiary of Philips, struggling to compete with industry giants like Nikon and Canon.

For years, ASML fought to survive, selling only a modest number of lithography systems and narrowly avoiding bankruptcy on several occasions. But by the late 1990s, the company began to gain traction, thanks in part to its willingness to bet big on EUV lithography—a technology that many in the industry doubted would ever be feasible.

The road to EUV was long and fraught with challenges. ASML had to overcome significant technical hurdles, including the development of specialized light sources and the world’s smoothest mirrors.

It also had to convince a skeptical industry that the technology was worth the investment. But by 2017, the company’s gamble had paid off.

ASML had not only succeeded in bringing EUV to market, but it had also positioned itself as the sole provider of this critical technology, effectively securing a monopoly in the field.

ASML's latest lithography machines are primarily centered around their Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems.

Let’s take a look at two of those

Standard EUV Lithography Machine

This is the current generation of ASML's standard EUV systems. It has a numerical aperture of 0.33 and is widely used in the semiconductor industry for advanced node production. It costs around $150 million per machine.

Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) Lithography Machine

The DUV machines are used for less advanced chip production. These machines operate at a wavelength of 193 nm and are still crucial for many semiconductor manufacturing processes.

Generally, DUV machines are less expensive than EUV systems, typically ranging from $50 million to $100 million depending on the model and configuration.

The Future of Lithography: High-NA and Beyond

As ASML continues to push the boundaries of what’s possible in semiconductor manufacturing, the company is already looking ahead to the next big challenge: High-Numerical-Aperture (H-NA) EUV lithography.

This is ASML's most advanced lithography machine, designed for producing the most intricate semiconductor components.

The High-NA EUV system offers a numerical aperture of 0.55, which allows it to print smaller features with greater precision compared to standard EUV machines. This baby costs approx $380 million per machine.

These new machines, which began shipping in 2023, represent another leap forward in chipmaking technology. With a higher numerical aperture, they can focus light more precisely, allowing for even smaller and more complex circuit designs.

High-NA machines are essential for producing the most advanced chips required by industries like AI, where demand for computing power is growing at an unprecedented rate.

But even as ASML rolls out this new technology, the company is already planning for the future. Van den Brink and his team are exploring the potential of Hyper-NA lithography, which could push the limits of chip design even further.

But Competition is Catching Up

Nikon Corporation

Nikon, based in Japan, has been a long-standing player in the semiconductor lithography market, particularly in Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) lithography. They have historically been a major competitor to ASML, especially in the earlier stages of lithography technology.

But it has struggled to compete in the EUV space, where ASML has taken a clear lead. Nikon’s focus remains on DUV systems and improving their existing technologies.

Canon

Like Nikon, Canon is another Japanese company that has been involved in semiconductor lithography, focusing primarily on DUV systems. Canon has been known for its innovations in DUV technology.

Canon, similar to Nikon, has not made significant inroads into EUV technology. Their focus also remains on improving DUV and other related technologies.

Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE)

SMEE is a Chinese company that has been developing lithography machines, particularly in the DUV space. They are considered a potential future competitor, especially given China's ambitions to build a domestic semiconductor industry.

But they are still behind ASML in terms of technology, particularly in EUV lithography. However, with significant government backing and investment, they could potentially close the gap in the coming years.

Veldhoven-based companies and other startups

Various smaller companies and startups, often based in or around Veldhoven (where ASML is headquartered), are working on niche lithography technologies or complementary tools. These companies are not direct competitors but could potentially innovate in areas that challenge ASML’s dominance.

However, these companies generally lack the scale and resources to compete directly with ASML but could drive innovation in specific areas.

Potential Future Competitors from China

Given China's strategic focus on building a self-sufficient semiconductor industry, companies like SMEE and others could receive significant support to develop competitive lithography technologies, including EUV.

The technological gap is still substantial, particularly in the highly complex field of EUV lithography. However, geopolitical factors and intense government backing could accelerate progress.

Intel’s Internal Development

Intel, one of ASML's major customers, has historically developed some of its own semiconductor manufacturing technologies. There’s speculation that Intel could invest in developing its own lithography solutions to reduce reliance on ASML.

Intel has not traditionally focused on lithography equipment manufacturing and would face significant challenges in catching up to ASML’s technology and expertise.

And considering their recent troubles, it looks very unlikely they may be able to put up a strong fight to an established player like ASML

The Pressure to Stay Ahead

While ASML’s dominance in the field of lithography seems secure for now, the company faces immense pressure to stay ahead of the curve.

In recent years, ASML has faced restrictions on selling its most advanced machines to Chinese customers, a move that could impact its long-term growth.

Nevertheless, van den Brink remains confident in ASML’s ability to maintain its leadership position. The company’s commitment to innovation, combined with its control over critical components of the supply chain, gives it a significant edge.

As van den Brink told MIT Technology Review, “Our success depends on their success,” a testament to the symbiotic relationship between ASML and its customers.

The Legacy of Martin van den Brink and ASML

As Martin van den Brink prepares to step down from his role as CTO, he leaves behind a legacy of technological breakthroughs that have shaped the semiconductor industry.

Under his leadership, ASML has not only sustained Moore’s Law but has also paved the way for future generations of chipmakers to continue pushing the boundaries of what’s possible.

While the future of Moore’s Law remains uncertain, van den Brink’s optimism is unwavering. As he remarked during his tribute to Gordon Moore, “There’s no reason to believe this will stop.”

For ASML, the challenge is not just to keep doubling the amount of rice on the chessboard but to ensure that the game itself continues for years to come.

As we look to the future, one thing is clear: ASML will be at the forefront, driving the next wave of innovation in semiconductor technology and beyond. The company’s story is a testament to the power of persistence, vision, and the unyielding belief that, no matter the odds, progress is always possible.

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